MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, Dec 3

MNI BRIEF: China-Based UK Firms Facing Challenges

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY248 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1996 Tue; -1.92% Y/Y

MNI NBP WATCH: Another Policy Hold, Dovish Communications Tilt

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

MNI: US REDBOOK: NOV STORE SALES +5.5% V YR AGO MO

MNI: SWISS NOV CPI -0.1% M/M, +0.7% Y/Y

MNI: TURKEY NOV CPI +2.24% M/M

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

AUSTRALIA: Unchanged Unemployment Rate Forecast For August

AUSTRALIA
APACAustraliaBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

August labour market data print on Thursday and Bloomberg consensus is expecting 26k new jobs, around half of the 3-month average, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2%. Employment prints have surprised to the upside in recent months but have still been below labour force growth, thus driving up unemployment. The participation rate is expected to stay at its new high of 67.1%.

  • The labour market has been gradually easing, with increased labour supply doing most of the work, but it still remains tight. In this release, the RBA not only looks at the headline numbers but also monitors the underemployment and youth unemployment rates, and hours worked.
  • Employment forecasts are between zero and 56.6k with most around 20k-35k. The 3-month average to July was 50.6k and the 6-month 50.9k.
  • CBA and NAB are below consensus expecting 20k new jobs, whereas ANZ and Westpac are above at 30k and 35k respectively. Westpac is projecting a stronger employment gain as it expects it to remain in line with trend which would keep the employment/population ratio “broadly steady”.
  • Unemployment rate forecasts are quite narrow between 4.1% and 4.3%. NAB is in line with consensus, whereas CBA is above at 4.3%, and ANZ and Westpac below with 4.1%.
203 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

August labour market data print on Thursday and Bloomberg consensus is expecting 26k new jobs, around half of the 3-month average, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2%. Employment prints have surprised to the upside in recent months but have still been below labour force growth, thus driving up unemployment. The participation rate is expected to stay at its new high of 67.1%.

  • The labour market has been gradually easing, with increased labour supply doing most of the work, but it still remains tight. In this release, the RBA not only looks at the headline numbers but also monitors the underemployment and youth unemployment rates, and hours worked.
  • Employment forecasts are between zero and 56.6k with most around 20k-35k. The 3-month average to July was 50.6k and the 6-month 50.9k.
  • CBA and NAB are below consensus expecting 20k new jobs, whereas ANZ and Westpac are above at 30k and 35k respectively. Westpac is projecting a stronger employment gain as it expects it to remain in line with trend which would keep the employment/population ratio “broadly steady”.
  • Unemployment rate forecasts are quite narrow between 4.1% and 4.3%. NAB is in line with consensus, whereas CBA is above at 4.3%, and ANZ and Westpac below with 4.1%.