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BA Futures Retrace Post BoC Surveys Move

CANADA
  • BA futures have been led lower by whites and reds today although much of this came before the BoC surveys.
  • BAU2 had led the move, down as much as 10.5 ticks on the day at 98.185 (a new low since Oct 28), but has almost fully unwound the reaction lower to leave it down 7.5 ticks at 98.215.
  • The survey showed more firms reporting impacts from labor shortages and supply-chain disruptions, and a record two-thirds estimating that inflation will exceed 3% over the next two years.
  • The separate consumer survey, which received less attention, also showed 1y and 2y out inflation expectations reaching new survey highs but this hasn’t yet fed into longer-term expectations, with the suggestion that “expectations remains well anchored”.
  • Data ahead: Housing starts tomorrow will likely be overshadowed by CPI for Dec on Wed, before the BoC rate decision the week after (Jan 26).
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