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BA/ML corporate bond analyst Yuri.....>

US CORPORATES
US CORPORATES: BA/ML corporate bond analyst Yuri Shchuchinov quipped "the world
is flat" and noted US "corporate yield curves are now the flattest since 2009,
driven in recent weeks by significant flattening of Treasury yield curves, as
the rate hiking cycle appears intact while the lack of inflation and corporate
supply anchor the long end.:
- He adds this Tsy curve flattening "represents the biggest near-term risk to
our spread curve flatteners, as the extra benefit from reaching out the curve
diminishes and back-end buyers tend to be yield sensitive."
- But he still favors flatteners over the medium term as "first, foreign demand
is concentrated in the back end of the curve due to the higher yields available
to offset high currency hedging costs. Second, the potential for lower tax rates
next year creates an incentive for companies to make contributions to their
pension plans this year and derisk, which shifts pension assets into the long
end. Third, overseas cash repatriation implies less supply out the curve, the
tendering of off-the-run 30-year bonds and less demand for shorter maturities."

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