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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessBackdrop Firms Further as Markets Erase Downside Options Premium
- The vol premium for PLN puts over calls continues to fade, with 3m EUR/PLN risk reversals slipping again Tuesday to hit the lowest levels since February 2022 (just before the multi-month surge in vols triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine).
- Moves in PLN vols mirror the contracting Poland-Germany 10y spread, which has halved since Q4'22, aided by both the election victory for the pro-EU Tusk-led coalition as well as NBP policy pause after their pre-vote rate cuts.
- While the skew toward OTM calls remains, the EUR/PLN vol smile has flattened notably as markets trim implied pricing for an outsized low delta move higher (evident in the lowest print 10d 3m butterfly vol in two years this week).
- NBP board will be cognizant of the more stable market backdrop coinciding with easier policy pricing at this week's meeting, meaning comms on inflation will be key, with inflation expected to near target as soon as March. A confirmation from Governor Glapiński will be sought during the press conference.
- MNI's NBP decision preview found here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/59860/MNI%20...
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.