Bailey: No Comment On Scottish Referendum; COVID Downside Risks

Q: There is an expectation of Covid cases to rise over the summer. What have you factored into your forecasts in terms of a third wave? What are your thoughts on a possible Scottish referendum and the impact on the pound?

• A (Bailey): I will not comment on any elections or referendums.
• The way I interpret the evidence is that I would not put too much emphasis on a rise in cases this summer. There is an argument that there is a seasonal component to Covid. Because of the possibility of a new variant, there is a downside risk to the forecast. But don't want to over emphasise this. It's a factor in the risks that we put into our forecasts. That is as far as it goes at the moment.