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AUSTRALIA: Bank desk views on today's AU labour market report:
- ANZ: We exp. a more moderate rise in employment in Sep. Labour market leading
indicators are more mixed: ANZ Job Ads have levelled out, but hiring intentions
in the business surveys still point to ongoing solid expansion in employment. We
look for a rise of 10k and an unchanged unemployment rate of 5.3%.
- NAB: We exp. a solid 30k rise in employment. Both internal data and the NAB
Survey Employment Index suggest that employment growth was strong in September.
Further, sample rotation impacts are exp. to have a +ve impact on employment.
- Westpac: Our Jobs Index & Westpac-MI Unemployment Expectations suggest that
the current +ve employment momentum can be maintained at least until year end.
Our forecast for a 15k rise in employment. The rise in participation has been
driven by NSW, and in particular, females in NSW where it is hitting record
highs. While we may be nearing the peak for participation in NSW, other states
have room to grow. As such, we expect participation to hold at 65.7%, leaving
the unemployment rate at 5.3%.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 |

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