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Bank of America View Ahead of Sep MPC Meeting

BOE
  • BoA note that despite decent GDP data thus far, "headwinds to growth are building,…We see risks of more dovish minutes as a result"
  • BoA think that that more stimulus from the BoE and/or government is "inevitable" and notes that "both plausible Brexit scenarios (skinny deal and no deal) are worse than its base-case assumption. This should, in time, make it more dovish"
  • Continue to expect GBP100bln more QE and Bank Rate cut to 0% in November, "maximizing monetary stimulus without crossing the Rubicon of negative rates" but note that "given the downside growth risks we see, if the BoE does not cut Bank Rate to zero in November, we expect it to do so in 2021".
  • BoA expect a rate cut to -0.50% in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

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