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Banxico Quarterly Inflation Report Due at 1830GMT

MEXICO
  • Banxico will release its quarterly inflation report (QIR) with revised forecasts for inflation and GDP at 1830GMT(1330ET). Ahead of a possible interest rate cut in March, markets will be focused on any guidance Banxico provides on its future policy decisions.
  • Goldman Sachs expect Banxico to maintain its inflation forecast from the Feb 8 MPC meeting, which would entail very small changes from the previous QIR inflation path, with convergence to target still expected in Q225. The 2024 GDP growth forecast may also be downgraded slightly. In terms of monetary policy, GS will pay particular attention to the characterisation of the balance of risks to inflation and also to the revised forecasts for the output gap and labour market. A tight goods market would reduce the urgency for Banxico to adjust the monetary stance.
  • JP Morgan think Banxico might use the QIR to communicate that it is more firmly considering cutting in March. This would be aided by likely downward revisions to short-term CPI forecasts and to growth. That said, JPM think Banxico will be clear again about not wanting a potential March rate cut to signal the beginning of an unconditional easing cycle and that policymakers very much want policy to remain restrictive.
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