Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
- Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- MNI ResearchMNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
DOLLAR: Barclays believe markets are "overreacting to the subtle shift in recent
Fed rhetoric, particularly in the context of the USD. The Fed has little
tangible reason to pull back from its prospective tightening path now:
continuing fiscal stimulus, rising aggregate household earnings, solid household
balance sheets & savings rates, & still-accommodative financial conditions all
point to sustained above-trend US growth, while inflation and financial
stability risks lurk in the background. Recent notes of caution relate either to
concern that foreign growth may drag more than expected on an otherwise robust
US economy or uncertainty over the neutral level of Fed funds. The former merits
caution but is second order for US growth, and the latter is nothing new. In the
context of the USD, a dampening of the Fed's projected tightening path caused by
unexpectedly weaker non-US growth is unlikely to grant relief from USD strength,
particularly for EM FX. While a shallower Fed path may decrease the absolute
divergence of US interest rates from other economies, it likely would not on a
risk-adjusted basis, and the broader (unbounded) returns to capital differential
could widen. As an alternative safe haven, the JPY may be an exception"