Barclays Saw Powell Signalling No Intention To Consider Cuts Until H2 2024

Per 27 notes reviewed by MNI, no analysts changed their views on future Fed policy following this meeting, with a minority continuing to see one further hike in either Sept or Nov and most seeing cuts starting in late Q1/early Q2 2024. The only one we read that saw the meeting as hawkish (as opposed to dovish / neutral) was Barclays, who are among the 5 or so expecting one further rate hike in this cycle. They argue:

• The committee remains focused on bringing down inflation, with Powell stating that judgments about cuts will occur "a full year from now". The upgrade in the Statement’s assessment of growth indicates somewhat of an asymmetry in the committee views about incoming data, with the FOMC acknowledging that incoming activity has been somewhat stronger than anticipated, whilst showing skepticism about whether the influences behind June's soft CPI print can be sustained.
• Powell struck a moderately hawkish tone. He was unusually disciplined, carefully avoiding statements that might be interpreted as dovish by markets.
• In regards to rate cuts, Powell said "That's just going to be a judgment that we have to make then a full year from now." Far from being inadvertent, we think that this phasing was intended as a signal that the FOMC has no current intention to even consider rate cuts until the July 2024 meeting.
• Future action expected by Barclays: 25bp final hike in November, cuts start July 2024.