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Barclays View Following the BOE MPR

BOE
  • Barclays expects the BOE to "revise forecasts lower in the coming quarters but will likely keep the narrative unchanged as it largely did in recent years: overpromise in terms of good news and under-deliver in terms of policy tightening." Barclays note that the forecast "is more in line with the upbeat tone struck recently by Chief Economist Haldane, and contrasts with the views of MPC members Tenreyro and Haskel."
  • Barcalys believe that with the "constant warning regarding uncertainties and limitation of their forecasts means that even the more interesting economic discussion regarding latest developments is of little use in assessing the future shape of the recovery, and with it, policies. We maintain our view that the BoE will remain on hold for the forseeable future, and announce further stimulus only when it becomes clear in the data."
  • On policy if the BOE was to act: "If growth was to fall short, we would expect QE and forward guidance to be the first tools to be deployed. That said, we would not exclude negative rates given the Bank has demonstrated its preference for policy packages, as opposed to single measures, which tailor a combination of tools to a particular situation in order to maximise policy effectiveness. We think the timing of such a move could be around the turn of the year, given that this would be the point when evidence of labour market deterioration, as well as any drag from the Brexit-outcome, would provide a weak enough backdrop for fresh policy impetuous." Barclays also notes it does "not expect the MPC to elaborate further on negative rates beyond the box in the MPR for the time being."
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