Barclays write "Q4 GDP was revised up to......>

JAPAN: Barclays write "Q4 GDP was revised up to 1.9% q/q saar in the second

preliminary data from an initial +1.4%, roughly in line with market

expectations. However, the upward revision largely reflected adjustments to

private inventory investment, suggesting the contents were less encouraging than

the headline print. We believe Q1 GDP faces mounting downside risk, including a

possibility of contraction, driven by sluggish exports, especially to China. A

strong probability of contraction could very well trigger some calls for

postponing the consumption tax hike. Private capex remains firm, as evident from

the corporate survey, a key input in the latest GDP data. As exports decelerate

more clearly, the sustainability of the current expansion could depend heavily

on whether the economy is able to transition smoothly to growth led by domestic

demand, especially private consumption and capex."