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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FINANCIALS
BBVA (BBVA SM) 4Q23 results out earlier which were marginally ahead of expectations and included upgrades to the outlook for returns and capital build.
- Revenues were EUR7.44bn (+15% y/y, consensus: 7.29bn) with NII missing (as rate impacts hit) but other income more than offsetting. Costs were only up 7% and loan losses were in line with consensus (1.23bn) meaning net income was EUR2.93bn (cons: 2.80bn). EPS was in line but there’s an upgrade to forward RoTE guidance to “high teens” (from 14%).
- Credit quality: non-performers were EUR15.3bn (3.4% of loans, +10bp from Sep-23 and in line with expectations) with the trajectory of write-offs looking reasonable. The flow into the “stage 2” bucket (halfway from performing to non-) was relatively large, however.
- Capital ratios: CET1 was 12.67% (from 12.73% at Sep-23) so in line and also above mgmt’s target range (11.5-12.0%) and regulatory minima (which moved to 9.09% on 1-Jan-24). Total capital was up 7bp (to 16.58%). Forward guidance implies “mid-teens” growth in tBV and dividend, implying capital build – a credit positive.
BBVA’s cash curve has tightened marginally over the last month; its most liquid benchmark ’25 bond (BBVASM 1 3/4 11/26/25) has tightened into results and these figures underpin that (see graphic). This is a good lateral for Santander (results 31-Jan), Sabadell (1-Feb) and Caixa (2-Feb),
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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