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Free AccessBBVA; Outlook Upgraded, Credit Quality Reasonable
BBVA (BBVA SM) 4Q23 results out earlier which were marginally ahead of expectations and included upgrades to the outlook for returns and capital build.
- Revenues were EUR7.44bn (+15% y/y, consensus: 7.29bn) with NII missing (as rate impacts hit) but other income more than offsetting. Costs were only up 7% and loan losses were in line with consensus (1.23bn) meaning net income was EUR2.93bn (cons: 2.80bn). EPS was in line but there’s an upgrade to forward RoTE guidance to “high teens” (from 14%).
- Credit quality: non-performers were EUR15.3bn (3.4% of loans, +10bp from Sep-23 and in line with expectations) with the trajectory of write-offs looking reasonable. The flow into the “stage 2” bucket (halfway from performing to non-) was relatively large, however.
- Capital ratios: CET1 was 12.67% (from 12.73% at Sep-23) so in line and also above mgmt’s target range (11.5-12.0%) and regulatory minima (which moved to 9.09% on 1-Jan-24). Total capital was up 7bp (to 16.58%). Forward guidance implies “mid-teens” growth in tBV and dividend, implying capital build – a credit positive.
BBVA’s cash curve has tightened marginally over the last month; its most liquid benchmark ’25 bond (BBVASM 1 3/4 11/26/25) has tightened into results and these figures underpin that (see graphic). This is a good lateral for Santander (results 31-Jan), Sabadell (1-Feb) and Caixa (2-Feb),
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