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BCRP Decision Prompts Sell-Side to See Further Rate Hikes

PERU
  • JP Morgan write that the BCRP insisted on pursuing a stable tightening pace, aiming to prevent additional inflation expectations deanchoring by taking comfort in the observed gap between headline and core inflation.
  • However, they add that even if realized inflation embarks on a downward trend starting this month, the central bank would likely find optimal to tighten monetary conditions further, so for inflation expectations to ease ahead. As such, they add 75bps in additional hikes, of which 50bp in August and 25bp in September, so for the policy rate to climb to 6.75%.
  • Goldman Sachs see the decision as in line with expectations, retaining their data-dependent stance and as well as noting that they would be particularly attentive to new data on inflation and its determinants. In their view, inflation has continued to surprise to the upside and the outlook remains challenging.
  • They believe the MPC will continue to raise the monetary policy rate in 2022 to reach a terminal level of 7.00% and expect monetary policy to remain moderately restrictive (slightly above neutral) over the relevant policy horizon.

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