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Bear Flattening On Stronger Data and Thin Markets

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen sizeable swings through the session but ultimately see a solid bear flattening on a combination of stronger than expected US data and thin volumes ahead of the Christmas break.
  • Data included upward revisions for GDP and marginally for core PCE plus further resilience in weekly jobless claims, but the market reaction appears outsized, especially with the leading index also weaker than expected.
  • The 2YY is currently 4.257%, +4.4bps having traded in a wide range of 4.185-4.265% (4.21% pre-data), with increased more muted along the curve: 5YY +1.4bp at 3.784%, 10YY +0.7bps at 3.669% and 30YY +1.3bps at 3.726%.
  • TYH3 currently trades little changed on the day at 113-17 with thin volumes (660k vs ¬950k typical for the time of day), off earlier lows of 113-13+ which saw the bear threat remains present with support at 113-09+ (Dec 21 low).
  • A final flurry of important data tomorrow, including US core PCE & incomes/spending, preliminary durable goods and the preliminary U.Mich survey.
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