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Bear Steepening With Powell Leading Fedspeak Plus Core PCE

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys are steadily retracing yesterday’s rally with a bear steepening as front end yields nudge higher with the implied terminal rate slowly drifting to cycle highs ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole address and the long end seeing larger increases, supported by China moving to boost growth including a widening of housing relaxations overnight before more recently financial regulators informally pushing increased loan growth. This comes with a backdrop of decent-sized month-end extension eyed, with Bloomberg bonds +0.12yrs and MS bonds +0.11yrs for Tsys.
  • 2YY +1.0bps at 3.376%, 5YY +4.3bps at 3.195%, 10YY +4.7bps at 3.072%, 30YY +3.5bps at 3.276%.
  • TYU2 trades -10 ticks lower at 117-15, resuming a downward trend after yesterday’s rally. The technical outlook is bearish and support is eyed at 117-03+ (Aug 24/25 low) after which sits 116-26+ (Jun 29 low). TYZ2 roll 73% complete.
  • Fedspeak: Powell’s speech at 1000ET dominates proceedings today but includes a multitude of regional Fed presidents speaking – see STIR FUTURES bullet for timings.
  • Data: Also of note today, core PCE (cons 0.2% after 0.6% M/M) and personal incomes/spending for July, final U.Mich survey for August plus July data for both inventories and advanced international trade.
  • No issuance.

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