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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POLITICAL RISK
As the US Presidential election continues, the probability of a Biden victory has faltered. The chart below plots shows the probability from PredictIt as presented by Bloomberg.
- This would put Biden odds back to late 2023 lows for this metric, although we are up from lows from earlier in the debate.
- The debate so far has covered a wide range of issues, from the economy, inflation, migration as well the Ukraine situation and the Middle East.
- Biden has stumbled on several occasions, while Trump has appeared more steady at this stage in terms of his responses. This has likely weighed on Biden's prospects. As our political risk analysts noted yesterday: "Viewers will be scrutinizing Biden for any sign that he lacks the mental or physical acuity to complete a second term, by the end of which he would be 86 years old."
- Trump's election odds have risen, now at 60, +5, based off PredictIt.
Fig 1: Biden Election Probability
Source: PredicIt/Bloomberg/MNI - Market News
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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