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Earlier today, for the first time since May, Republican Donald Trump was given a higher implied probability of victory in the presidential election than his Democratic opponent Joe Biden, albeit for only a brief period of time according to data from betdata.io.

  • Trump's implied probability of winning has climbed over the course of August and into September, with the pace of increase in COVID-19 cases slowing in the US, what was seen as a broadly successful RNC, and outbreaks of violence in several cities as a result of the BLM movement and armed militias allowing Trump to present himself as a 'law and order' candidate.
  • As these implied probabilities reflect betting market odds as given by the Betfair Exchange, there is also the factor of individuals taking profit on bets placed earlier or indeed placing bets on Trump given his long odds rather than a belief he will win the election.

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Presidential Election

Source: Betdata.io, MNI

MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-0981 | tom.lake@marketnews.com