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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Earlier today, for the first time since May, Republican Donald Trump was given a higher implied probability of victory in the presidential election than his Democratic opponent Joe Biden, albeit for only a brief period of time according to data from betdata.io.
- Trump's implied probability of winning has climbed over the course of August and into September, with the pace of increase in COVID-19 cases slowing in the US, what was seen as a broadly successful RNC, and outbreaks of violence in several cities as a result of the BLM movement and armed militias allowing Trump to present himself as a 'law and order' candidate.
- As these implied probabilities reflect betting market odds as given by the Betfair Exchange, there is also the factor of individuals taking profit on bets placed earlier or indeed placing bets on Trump given his long odds rather than a belief he will win the election.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Presidential Election
Source: Betdata.io, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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