RBNZ SAYS IT HAS SCOPE TO LOWER FURTHER IN 2025

MNI: RBNZ CUTS OCR 50BP TO 3.75%

MNI BRIEF: Aussie Q4 Wages Grow 0.7% Q/Q

MNI BRIEF: Fed’s Barr Sees More Disinflation After Jan. ‘Bump’

MNI BRIEF: Fed Rates Need To Stay Restrictive - Daly

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, February 18

MNI: UK NOV-JAN MEDIAN PAY AWARDS +3% :Brightmine

MNI JAPAN DEC CORE MACHINE ORDERS -1.2% M/M; NOV +3.4%

MNI: JAPAN JAN EXPORTS +7.2% Y/Y; DEC +2.8%

GERMANY: Economy Ministry Lowers 2025 Growth Forecast As Expected

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

GERMANY: Kukies Considers Potential Non-Implementation Of 2024 Suppl' Budget

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

BOE: Big surprises with two 50bp cut dissenters

BOE
Bank of EnglandCentral Bank NewsCEEMEABulletUKMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • The two 50bp dovish dissents was a big surprise. And with Mann one of those (switching "activist") that would suggest we have at least four members who now favour sequential cuts (adding Mann to the three we had in Dec).
  • Against that the 2-year CPI forecasts seem pretty high at 2.3% and the 3-year CPI forecasts are at 1.9%.
  • The Agents survey coming in at 3.7% for 2025 settlements (against the 3-4% range in Dec) and the DMP survey pointing to 4% over the year ahead with the Minutes pointing to overall 3.75% by year-end.
  • Mann's more "activist" approach has made it into the Minutes - but that is specifically tied to "this meeting" and noting that "monetary policy would need to remain restrictive for some time to anchor inflation expectations, and Bank Rate would likely stay high given structural persistence and macroeconomic volatility."
  • There is also a split in the 7 voting for the 25bp cut:
    With some noting: "This warranted an approach to policymaking which was both gradual in continuing to lean against the persistence in inflation and careful in recognising increased uncertainty and that there were two-sided risks to inflation."
    And others: "continued to warrant a cautious and gradual removal of monetary policy restriction."
201 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • The two 50bp dovish dissents was a big surprise. And with Mann one of those (switching "activist") that would suggest we have at least four members who now favour sequential cuts (adding Mann to the three we had in Dec).
  • Against that the 2-year CPI forecasts seem pretty high at 2.3% and the 3-year CPI forecasts are at 1.9%.
  • The Agents survey coming in at 3.7% for 2025 settlements (against the 3-4% range in Dec) and the DMP survey pointing to 4% over the year ahead with the Minutes pointing to overall 3.75% by year-end.
  • Mann's more "activist" approach has made it into the Minutes - but that is specifically tied to "this meeting" and noting that "monetary policy would need to remain restrictive for some time to anchor inflation expectations, and Bank Rate would likely stay high given structural persistence and macroeconomic volatility."
  • There is also a split in the 7 voting for the 25bp cut:
    With some noting: "This warranted an approach to policymaking which was both gradual in continuing to lean against the persistence in inflation and careful in recognising increased uncertainty and that there were two-sided risks to inflation."
    And others: "continued to warrant a cautious and gradual removal of monetary policy restriction."