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Free AccessBMO analyst Ian Lyngen said the.....>
US TSYS SUMMARY: BMO analyst Ian Lyngen said the Treasuries "selloff into
month-end hasn't materially altered our take on the Treasury market and, if
anything, the underlying causes of the downtrade only further solidify our
range-trading thesis in 10s and 30s. We remain bearish on the front-end of the
curve (out to 5s) as the Fed's insistence on tightening policy only finds
further support in this week's series of events."
- He adds, "Let's face it, stocks apparently only have one direction to go
(higher), we saw core-PCE at +0.2% MoM in both September and October, and tax
reforms are effectively a foregone conclusion. If that's the case, Thursday's
price action offered reinforcement of our interpretation of the market's current
reaction function to positive news - a flatter 5s/30s curve. We maintain that if
this remains the case, the outperformance of the long bond will contain 10-year
yields as well, emphasizing the risk of a much flatter curve. In the 'race to
zero' we're watching the 5s/10s curve as an instructive bellwether (now at less
than 28 bp)."
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.