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US TSYS/RESEARCH: BMO analysts said "the most important questions" for the 2018
US govt bond market "will be centered on inflation and inflation expectations.
We can envision 3 scenarios for realized inflation: 1) more of the same with
core-PCE gaining +0.10% to +0.14% on a monthly basis, 2) an acceleration of
inflation to average +0.14% to +0.20%, or 3) a material leg higher in inflation
to consistently print at +0.20% or above."
- They add that "in the first 2 outcomes, we suspect that the 2s/10s curve
pushes flatter: bullishly in the first case, and bearishly in the second. The
second scenario is our base-case, and we suspect that rather than ushering in
the triumphant return of term-premium to the Treasury market, the seasonal spike
of inflation so typical of the first quarter will embolden Fed tightening
expectations and further weigh on the front-end of the curve while leaving 10s
and 30s under only modest pressure."