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BMO: CPI Eyed A Tenth Higher Than Consensus

CANADA
  • BMO see headline CPI at +0.6% M/M, pushing the year-ago rate a tenth higher to 6.8% Y/Y (cons. 6.7% Y/Y) for a new high since Jan-1991 when GST was introduced.
  • Energy may have cooled temporarily in April but food should see continued upward pressure from the war in Ukraine and shelter should see another big increase judging by one-month lagged new home prices.
  • It’s unlikely the peak in headline Y/Y, with a good chance of a 7-handle next month with the sharp rise in energy prices at the start of May.
  • Core CPI measures are expected to be little changed in April at an average 3.8% but with risks skewed to the upside.
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