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BMO Preview: Liftoff A Little Earlier

FED

BMO expects few changes at the April FOMC, but with its higher GDP growth forecasts for 2022-23, it has pulled forward its schedule for expected Fed liftoff.

  • Statement: To acknowledge that economic activity and employment continue to pick up, and that inflation has moved above 2% (on base effects).
  • Future action: Rate liftoff in Mar 2023 (previously said Jun 2023), with hikes every 6 months, and 2.00% terminal rate. Tapering announcement in Sep 2021 (BMO previously said Dec 2021). "A six-quarter window between the start of tapering and rate hikes fits into the "well before" characterization Chair Powell gave on April 14".
  • BMO sees 'a chance' we will get a 5bps rise in IOER and ON RRP at the April FOMC.

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