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BNP: Had Expected Dec hike, still look for second hike in May

BOE
  • Had expected the 15bp December hike. The decision “to start the process of policy tightening confirms our bias that the strength of the economic data would hold the upper hand, rather than Omicron developments.”
  • “While the overall message was more hawkish than expected, we stick to our view that the next rate hike will not come until May, not least because of the MPC’s sensitivity to Omicron-related developments.”
  • “We expect two 25bp hikes in 2022 and another two in 2023, taking the Bank Rate to 1.25%, which is already above the peak priced in by markets. We would not consider this the ‘terminal’ rate either and think the MPC could go further.”
  • Yesterday’s “hike keeps open the debate about the maturing Mar-22 gilt in the APF, which we expect to be fully reinvested, as the 0.5% Bank Rate threshold is only expected in May”
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