MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, October 30

MNI: GERMANY Q3 FLASH GDP 0.2% Q/Q (VS -0.1% FCST, -0.3% PRIOR)

MNI OCT CHINA MONEY MARKET INDEX 38.4

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY361.7 Bln via OMO Wednesday

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY431.0 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1390 Weds; +2.45% Y/Y

MNI: GERMANY NRW OCT CPI +0.3% M/M, +2% Y/Y

MNI: BAVARIA OCT CPI +0.5% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: SPAIN OCT FLASH HICP +0.4% M/M, +1.8% Y/Y

EUROPEAN FISCAL: DE 2025 Budget Gap Grows; Political Risk Is Rising

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Facing More Internal Dissent And Departures

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Faces More Pressure To Resign

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BOE Financial Stability Report due at 10:30BST

UK PREVIEW
  • Bank of England Financial Stability Report due out this morning (1030 London time). Language likely little changed from Dec-23, aside from proximity of next rate cut. CCyB news will be a point of interest. UK bank spreads have performed well YTD and financial results have generally appeared robust with few asset quality pitfalls incurred.
  • FSRs are semi-annual – the last (6-Dec-23) saw “challenging” conditions with “increased geopolitical tensions” and growth, inflation and rate uncertainties. It did specifically allude to rates remaining “higher for longer” but noted the health of the banking system and, again, flagged risks in non-bank finance. We could almost copy-and-paste that language into current expectations but at least we are now somewhat closer to UK rate cuts (13bp priced into Aug-24 cut currently).
  • Specifically for banks, the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) was maintained at its neutral (2%) setting. The recent news on this has been more mixed with Spain looked to increase the buffer (against bank lobbying), whereas Czechia has just (6-Jun) decided to lower its buffer. So, this will be a key area of interest.
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