BofA Now Sees 50bp Hikes Next 3 FOMCs

BofA adjusted its Fed rate hike call following the March FOMC minutes release yesterday: it now sees 50bp hikes at the next 3 meetings, with 25bp raises at each meeting thereafter until reaching 3.25-3.50% in May 2023.

• That end-rate is 25bp above their previous 3.00-3.25% call.
• Prior to the minutes, BofA thought that a May QT launch would potentially lead to "incremental tightening" that would keep the Fed hiking by just 25bp in May rather than 50bp.
• But as the minutes noted, "participants judged that it would be appropriate to move the stance of monetary policy toward a neutral posture expeditiously", and 50bp is the likely scenario in May unless events in Ukraine worsen.