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BofA Switches Sept Decision View From Hold To +25bp On Inflation

ECB VIEW

BofA analysts now see the ECB hiking rates a final time by 25bp (to 4.00% depo) in September - prior to the July meeting and inflation data they'd seen no further hikes. They maintain their view that cuts will start in June 2024.

  • Though they'd previously seen the choice as between 3.75% or 4.00% terminal as a close call (and still think September's decision is close to 50/50), the July core inflation print "has made an August core slowdown below 5% unlikely", switching the balance of risks toward a final 25bp hike in September.
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