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Free AccessBonds Back to Extending Highs Post-Dec FOMC Minutes
- Treasury futures are making new session highs following a moderate round of two way trade after the Dec FOMC minutes release. Mar'24 10Y futures tap 112-20 (+10.5) high, 10Y yield back below 4% to 3.8918%.
- Minutes balanced but with a dovish tone as officials note diminished inflation and need to start discussion of QT wind down sees projected rate cuts for early 2024 slightly better than recent highs:
- January 2024 cumulative -2.1bp at 5.307%, March 2024 chance of rate cut -72.1% vs. -65.4% (-84.3% last Friday) w/ cumulative of -19.7bp at 5.132%, May 2024 chance of cut back to -94.8% vs. -87.2% immediately after the release, cumulative -42.9bp at 4.900%, June'24 cumulative -67.5bp at 4.653%. Fed terminal at 5.327% in Jan'24.
- Still digesting the minutes, market focus turning to Thursday morning's ADP private employment at 0815ET tomorrow, followed by December employment release on Friday at 0830ET.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.