October 29, 2024 22:00 GMT
BONDS: NZGBS: Little Changed, US Tsys Rally On JOLTS Data
BONDS
In local morning trade, NZGBs are unchanged after US tsys rallied on weaker-than-expected JOLTS data. There were 7443k (cons 8000k) vacant jobs in September, the lowest since February 2021. US non-farm payroll data is due on Friday.
- Meanwhile, within the surprisingly strong Conference Board consumer survey for October (confidence at 108.7 vs cons 99.5 after 99.2), the labour differential improved for the first time in eight months.
- The US 10-year yield traded to an intra-day peak of 4.34% - a fresh cycle high since the September trough - before retracing to 4.25% (-3bps) after the 7-year auction saw strong investor demand and cleared 2bp below market levels. Yesterday, 2-year and 5-year treasury auctions cleared above the prevailing market rate.
- The focus now turns to today's ADP employment data, GDP and Pending Home Sales.
- Swap rates are little changed.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings. A cumulative 99bps of easing is priced by February, with 54bps by year-end.
- Today, the local calendar is empty.
- Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$175mn of the 3.0% Apr-29 bond, NZ$250mn of the 4.25% May-34 bond and NZ$75mn of the 1.75% May-41 bond.
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