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BONDS: NZGBS: Modest Bull Steepener After US Tsys Bear Flatten

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

In local morning trade, NZGBs have bull-steepened, with yields flat to 2bps lower, after US tsys closed showing a modest bear-flattener ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. 

  • US tsys rallied early on renewed geopolitical tensions as Russia reportedly used an experimental ICBM. From there, US tsys’ rally faded, as US officials talked down the missile episode, and equities hit the week's best levels following Wednesday's Nvidia earnings beat.
  • The data did not have a lasting impact: solid initial jobless claims (for payrolls reference week) offset weakness in continuing claims, existing home sales remained subdued as expected, and regional Fed manufacturing surveys (Philly, KC) offered mixed indications of current activity.
  • An ASB survey showed that 52% of directors expect the economy to improve over the next year, while 28% see a decline. Asked to rank the biggest impediments to economic performance, respondents listed cost-of-living, global economic/geopolitical concerns and productivity. (per BBG)
  • Swap rates are 1bp lower.
  • RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is little changed. A cumulative 93bps of easing is priced by February, with 52bps by year-end.
  • The local calendar is light again today. The next key release will be Q3 Retail Sales ex Inflation on Monday. 
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In local morning trade, NZGBs have bull-steepened, with yields flat to 2bps lower, after US tsys closed showing a modest bear-flattener ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday. 

  • US tsys rallied early on renewed geopolitical tensions as Russia reportedly used an experimental ICBM. From there, US tsys’ rally faded, as US officials talked down the missile episode, and equities hit the week's best levels following Wednesday's Nvidia earnings beat.
  • The data did not have a lasting impact: solid initial jobless claims (for payrolls reference week) offset weakness in continuing claims, existing home sales remained subdued as expected, and regional Fed manufacturing surveys (Philly, KC) offered mixed indications of current activity.
  • An ASB survey showed that 52% of directors expect the economy to improve over the next year, while 28% see a decline. Asked to rank the biggest impediments to economic performance, respondents listed cost-of-living, global economic/geopolitical concerns and productivity. (per BBG)
  • Swap rates are 1bp lower.
  • RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is little changed. A cumulative 93bps of easing is priced by February, with 52bps by year-end.
  • The local calendar is light again today. The next key release will be Q3 Retail Sales ex Inflation on Monday.