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Bostic: Glimmers Of Hope But Business Activity Not Yet Constrained Enough

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  • Bostic’s ('24 voter) pens an essay that is broadly consistent with Fed commentary of slower hikes but potentially to a higher level than in the Sept SEP ahead, noting it will need to continue to hike as it appears tighter money has not yet constrained business activity enough to seriously dent inflation.
  • He notes “glimmers of hope” that inflation is easing, concentrated in PCE goods, but also needs to see slower increases in services prices, which is not yet the case (although CPI core services did moderate in Oct, not mentioned in the essay).
  • It follows Harker (’23) earlier repeating he sees the pace of hikes slowing in coming months before shifting on hold at some point next year.
  • FOMC-dated Fed Funds terminal rate little changed on comments but follows steadily moving lower through the session to 4.88% (-4bps) back to levels from late last week post CPI.

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  • Bostic’s ('24 voter) pens an essay that is broadly consistent with Fed commentary of slower hikes but potentially to a higher level than in the Sept SEP ahead, noting it will need to continue to hike as it appears tighter money has not yet constrained business activity enough to seriously dent inflation.
  • He notes “glimmers of hope” that inflation is easing, concentrated in PCE goods, but also needs to see slower increases in services prices, which is not yet the case (although CPI core services did moderate in Oct, not mentioned in the essay).
  • It follows Harker (’23) earlier repeating he sees the pace of hikes slowing in coming months before shifting on hold at some point next year.
  • FOMC-dated Fed Funds terminal rate little changed on comments but follows steadily moving lower through the session to 4.88% (-4bps) back to levels from late last week post CPI.