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Both Lower Breakevens and Real Yields See Belly Richer

US TSYS
  • Pulling back slightly, the belly led rally (5Y -5bps) is down to a combination of a lower breakeven (-1.5bps) and more so lower real yields (-3.5bps).
  • We saw a similar pattern at the beginning of yesterday’s rally before real yields reversed course and gave way to a 13bp slide in the breakeven.
  • As things stand, today’s 1.5bp drop in the 5Y breakeven to 2.50% sees it firmly back to mid-2021 average (pre taper) levels. It’s still elevated compared to the most recent pre-covid high of 2.17% in May’18, but is down considerably from 3.1% a month ago and a high of 3.76% in March.

Source: Bloomberg

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