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Brazil Equities At All-Time High And BRL Near To All-Time Lows

BRAZIL
  • While we tend to find the existence of a 'Pavlovian' relationship between the currency and the equity markets for most of the EM economies (stronger currency tends to be associated with higher equities and vice versa), it has not been the case for Brazil.
  • While the BRL has been constantly weakening in the past few years amid rising political and economic uncertainty, equities have been trending higher.
  • To the exception of the March panic when both the BRL and Ibovespa experienced significant drawdowns, the trend on Ibovespa has been steady.
  • The chart shows the interesting divergence since the March 2020 panic between the equity market, which is approaching its all-time high, and the BRL, which is currently trading close to its historical lows relative to the USD.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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