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Brightmine (XpertHR): Pay Deals Fall to 4.8%; Expected 5% for 2024 Overall

UK DATA
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  • Brightmine (previously XpertHR) median basic pay awards in the 3 months to the end of March 2024 fell to +4.8% (vs a revised +5.0% in the prior rolling quarter - originally +4.8% Y/Y 3 month average) - the lowest level since September 2022.
  • On top of the normal monthly rolling quarter data, Brightmine's preview of April pay deals finds that the median rises marginally to 5%. The Brightmine senior content manager states with the April settlements coming in "this cements our view that pay awards will centre on the 5% mark over at least the first half of 2024."
  • Both this and the quarterly rolling data point to a reduction in wage growth relative to last year, although not as meaningful a slowdown as the MPC would have liked. Note that last week's official ONS wage data fell less than expected.
  • Data collected between 1 January and 31 March 2024, based on a total of 142 pay settlements, representing 398,976 employees.

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  • Brightmine (previously XpertHR) median basic pay awards in the 3 months to the end of March 2024 fell to +4.8% (vs a revised +5.0% in the prior rolling quarter - originally +4.8% Y/Y 3 month average) - the lowest level since September 2022.
  • On top of the normal monthly rolling quarter data, Brightmine's preview of April pay deals finds that the median rises marginally to 5%. The Brightmine senior content manager states with the April settlements coming in "this cements our view that pay awards will centre on the 5% mark over at least the first half of 2024."
  • Both this and the quarterly rolling data point to a reduction in wage growth relative to last year, although not as meaningful a slowdown as the MPC would have liked. Note that last week's official ONS wage data fell less than expected.
  • Data collected between 1 January and 31 March 2024, based on a total of 142 pay settlements, representing 398,976 employees.