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Broad Based Gains Amid US Yield Pull Back

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are lower across the board, albeit to varying degrees. The ADXY is back close to 101, +0.60% higher for the session, as broad USD sentiment has faltered amid the further pull back in US yields. The collapse of SVB has seen a sharp pull back in US tightening expectations, while the US authorities' steps (US Fed funding supporting, and ensuring SVB deposits are whole) has limited the fallout for regional equities. Still to come is Indian CPI for Feb, while tomorrow delivers South Korean trade prices and Indian wholesale prices. Philippines trade figures are also due.

  • USD/CNH got to a low of 6.8645, but we now sit slightly higher at 6.8900. A modest recovery in US yields this afternoon has curbed USD losses, albeit only at the margin. New Premier Li Qiang stated it won't be easy to hit the 5% growth target, although onshore equities are firmer, near gains of 0.70%. The Premier also emphasized the importance of the private sector, while weekend news of Yi Gang being re-appointed as PBoC Governor was also a welcome surprise for markets looking for policy continuity.
  • 1 month USD/KRW sits slightly above session lows, last near 1299 (we got to 1297 earlier). Onshore equities have recovered from earlier losses, with the Kospi now +0.65%. The South Korean authorities stated they are ready to curb excessive market moves in the wake of the SVB collapse if needed.
  • USD/SGD is softer today, as falling US Yields weigh on the greenback, last printing at $1.3440/50 down ~0.%. The pair tested its 20-day EMA ($1.3435) as bears look to continue today's move lower, but we last sit slightly higher. On Friday SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) was marginally softer. We sit ~0.9% below the top end of the band.
  • USD/INR prints at 81.90/00, ~0.2% softer today. The rupee is benefitting from the broad based USD weakness in Asia, however USD/INR is lagging compared to its peers (ADXY is up ~0.6%), perhaps a reflection of the INRs recent outperformance in March. Equity inflows continued last week with ~$564mn in local equities bought by global investors in the week to Thursday. On the wires today we have Feb CPI, the Bloomberg Median Estimate is at 6.4% which is above the upper inflation target of the RBI. A firm print may reduce odds of an RBI pause in the April policy meeting.
  • USD/IDR is down 0.60% last near 15360/65. Pared Fed expectations should benefit the IDR, all else equal. Rupiah bulls will target a move towards the 20-day EMA, which is just below 15290. USD/THB has pulled back sharply, last near 34.60. We did get as low as 34.425 in the pair.

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