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BTP/Bund Spread 4bps Wider As Equity Market Weakness Persists

BTP

The 10-year BTP/Bund Spread has widened almost 4bps today, approaching levels seen before last Thursday's dovishly perceived ECB decision.

  • Against a backdrop of today's 15-year syndication, spreads widened through this morning, before stabilising as indications of solid demand metrics filtered through.
  • Once the syndication priced, the removal of hedging related pressures alongside a soft US ADP report enabled spreads to tighten around 2.5bps.
  • However, equity market weakness and related risk-off flows since then have pushed the 10-year spread wider, currently trading at 156.5bps.
  • Previously noted moves in German ASWs will have also factored into spread widening.
  • A reminder that the December Italian unemployment rate was lower-than-expected at 7.2% today (vs 7.5% cons, 7.4% prior), while the surprisingly large hourly wages print (7.9% Y/Y, 5.1% M/M) was driven by one-off payments for Government employees.
  • Tomorrow sees the release of domestic flash inflation alongside the Eurozone-wide release (Current Italy HICP forecast: +0.8% Y/Y vs +0.5% prior / -1.2% M/M vs +0.2% prior).

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