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Bull Flattening As Familiar Anxieties Re-Emerge

US TSYS SUMMARY

A familiar set of global concerns has boosted Tsys among other safe haven plays: COVID (lockdowns in Europe), Brexit (EU Summit getting underway shortly), and US fiscal (Mnuchin's comments Weds dashing most hopes of pre-election stimulus).

  • Tsy futures just below session highs, with Dec TYs up 5/32 at 139-12 (L: 139-06 / H: 139-13) - decent volume too, ~275k by 0630ET.
  • Textbook risk-off bull flattening as well: the 2-Yr yield is down 0.6bps at 0.133%, 5-Yr is down 1.3bps at 0.2913%, 10-Yr is down 2.8bps at 0.6975%, and 30-Yr is down 4.4bps at 1.4618%.
  • Earnings weighed on equities in Europe; in the US after Wednesday's mixed bag of financials earnings, we get Morgan Stanley today at 0730ET.
  • 0830ET sees most of the data slate: jobless claims, Philly Fed and Empire State mfg indices, and Sep import/export prices.
  • In Fed speakers we get Atl's Bostic at 0900ET, StL's Bullard at 1010ET, Dallas' Kaplan / VC Quarles (at separate events) at 1100ET, Richmond's Barkin at 1400ET, and Minn's Kashkari at 1700ET.
  • Trump / Biden election events will be eyed after hours.
  • $65B in 4-/8-week bill sales at 1130ET, and NY Fed buys ~$2.425B of 1-7.5Y TIPS.
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

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