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Bull flattening as sentiment sours

BONDS
  • Core fixed income is higher across the board this morning. Drivers include Moody's cutting ratings on the US banking sector and some soft Chinese data overnight which have both led to a generally risk-off tone across markets. Although it didn't see any real market reaction the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey also showed a continued decline, helping add to the dovish sentiment in the market this morning.
  • Curves have bull flattened across the board in core FI.
  • EGBs have seen the biggest rally with 10-year Bund yields almost 10bp lower on the day at the time of writing, back to 2.5%, but decent moves for both gilts and Treasuries too (with TY1 hitting its highest level of the month so far).
  • Today we will hear from Fed's Harker and Barkin but markets already have one eye on tomorrow's US CPI print.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-10 today at 111-14 with 10y UST yields down -7.5bp at 4.018% and 2y yields down -2.6bp at 4.740%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.95 today at 132.75 with 10y Bund yields down -9.9bp at 2.499% and Schatz yields down -4.7bp at 2.921%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.80 today at 950.08 with 10y yields down -8.4bp at 4.374% and 2y yields down -4.2bp at 4.891%.
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