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Bullard Tempers the Inner Hawk

US TSYS SUMMARY

Generally sedate, sideways trade since mid-morning, futures trading near session lows by the bell, yld curves regaining some ground after last week's post-FOMC bull flattening slip to 110.568 low from 142.541 high last week Monday.

  • Tsy bonds extend lows after holding narrow/lower range for appr 4 hours heading into the NY open -- well off early overnight highs. Yld curves bounced after the steady bull flattening since last week's FOMC and hawkish pivot.
  • Heavy overnight volumes (TYU >850k by the open; 1.7M after the close) after Tsys ground higher during Asia hours, only to reverse the move during the cross-over to London trade.
  • 30YY currently 2.1083% +.0957 (2.1083%H, 1.9259%L)
  • 10YY currently 1.4381% +.0455 (1.4903%H, 1.3526%L)
  • Contributing to the bounce in yld curves: Bullard softened last week's more hawkish tone somewhat: "I think markets themselves are a little bit confused about the recent moves. I do think we're going to allow inflation to be above target...that has to get priced in."
  • Mixed flow on session, decent corporate issuance hedging added to volumes.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 0.2bps at 0.2522%, 5-Yr is up 1bps at 0.8844%, 10-Yr is up 4.2bps at 1.4802%, and 30-Yr is up 8.3bps at 2.0954%.

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