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Bullish Engulfing Candle Forms in USD/ZAR; Ramaphosa's SONA in Focus

SOUTH AFRICA
  • USD/ZAR trades -0.19% lower this morning, mirroring early selling pressure on the BBDXY.
  • The cross rose +1.29% on Friday following the upside surprise in NFP data, with ZAR’s high-beta nature and commodity currency status making it among the most affected by the rise in UST yields & USD following the print.
  • Domestic focus will be on Ramaphosa’s state of the nation address (SONA) on Thursday amid historically weak support for the ANC and public discontent over corruption due to the release of the Zondo report on state capture.
  • Load-shedding ended ahead of schedule on Sunday, but the outlook for energy security remains gloomy for 2022 and is expected to weigh on growth/activity.
  • Mining data is due closer to the end of the week alongside US CPI data – which should draw most of the global focus.
  • Friday’s price action in USD/ZAR formed a bullish engulfing candle to close above the 100dma, but must close above 15.50 & the 50dma (15.6577) to open up the 16.00 handle above.
  • Terms of trade are in decent shape with gold and PGMs gaining from the start of Feb.
  • Intraday Sup1: 15.3663, Sup2: 15.2963, Res1: 15.5230, Res2: 15.5777
  • Citi SA terms of trade


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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