MNI: PBOC To Aim To Drive Inflation Higher- Advisors

MNI: China To Issue More Bonds As Stimulus Targets Consumption

MNI BRIEF: China Nov M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Slows

CHINA YTD NEW LOANS CNY17.1 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY17.5 TRLN: PBOC

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, December 13

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Curb Any Yuan Overshot : PBOC Zou

MNI: EUROZONE OCT IP +0% M/M, -1.2% Y/Y

MNI: SPAIN NOV HICP +0% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE NOV HICP -0.1% M/M, +1.7% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

BONDS: Bunds Underperform Gilts, French PM Announcement Expected Today

BONDS
BulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Bund futures are -58 ticks today at 134.77. Yesterday’s low (134.82) has been pierced, exposing the 50% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull leg at 134.59. A break of this level would strengthen the current downleg.

  • Downside momentum in EGBs has continued following yesterday’s ECB decision, with OAT (-39 ticks) and BTP (-47 ticks) futures also weaker today.
  • The 10-year BTP/Bund spread is off yesterday’s widest levels, 2bps tighter today at 112.5bps.
  • French President Macron is expected to name a new PM today. François Bayrou is the current favourite in betting markets (Polymarket assigns a 66% implied probability, though this is down from 87% earlier this morning).
  • Eurozone industrial production was unchanged M/M but saw an upward revision, in line with MNI’s tracking.
  • Several ECB speakers (including the hawkish Holzmann) have noted that rates will continue to fall, with policy still in restrictive territory (in line with President Lagarde’s press conference yesterday).
  • Gilt futures have been dragged lower by German counterparts, now -28 ticks today at 94.69. The Nov 25 low at 94.66 was briefly pierced earlier, with next support below that level at 93.96 (November 22 low).
  • Monthly UK GDP data was softer-than-expected at -0.1% M/M (vs 0.1% cons), but the opening rally in Gilt futures quickly faded.
  • Cross-market cues and macro headline flow is eyed for the remainder of the day, with little of note on the UK calendar. In the Eurozone, the dovish Centeno is scheduled to speak at 1100GMT.
239 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Bund futures are -58 ticks today at 134.77. Yesterday’s low (134.82) has been pierced, exposing the 50% retracement of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull leg at 134.59. A break of this level would strengthen the current downleg.

  • Downside momentum in EGBs has continued following yesterday’s ECB decision, with OAT (-39 ticks) and BTP (-47 ticks) futures also weaker today.
  • The 10-year BTP/Bund spread is off yesterday’s widest levels, 2bps tighter today at 112.5bps.
  • French President Macron is expected to name a new PM today. François Bayrou is the current favourite in betting markets (Polymarket assigns a 66% implied probability, though this is down from 87% earlier this morning).
  • Eurozone industrial production was unchanged M/M but saw an upward revision, in line with MNI’s tracking.
  • Several ECB speakers (including the hawkish Holzmann) have noted that rates will continue to fall, with policy still in restrictive territory (in line with President Lagarde’s press conference yesterday).
  • Gilt futures have been dragged lower by German counterparts, now -28 ticks today at 94.69. The Nov 25 low at 94.66 was briefly pierced earlier, with next support below that level at 93.96 (November 22 low).
  • Monthly UK GDP data was softer-than-expected at -0.1% M/M (vs 0.1% cons), but the opening rally in Gilt futures quickly faded.
  • Cross-market cues and macro headline flow is eyed for the remainder of the day, with little of note on the UK calendar. In the Eurozone, the dovish Centeno is scheduled to speak at 1100GMT.