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Buoyant Brent Keeps Oil-Tied FX Pointed Higher

FOREX
  • NOK is the firmest performer in G10, gaining against all others as oil prices remain buoyant and provide a base for oil-tied currencies. WTI and Brent crude futures sit higher by ~1% at typing, well within range of last week's cycle highs posted on September 19th.
  • EUR/NOK has subsequently broken lower, showing below the 50-dma to expose 11.3229, the 200-dma for direction. This level provided firm support for the cross in late July/early August, meaning markets could pay further attention to the level on any test.
  • Equity markets are generally slightly firmer, with US futures pointing to a minor positive open. The USD is stable, sitting broadly mid-table, although the USD Index uptrend remains firmly intact for now, with the outlook firming on the break above the early March highs.
  • AUD is the poorest performer so far, keeping AUD/USD within range of support at 0.6357, the early September low.
  • Focus for the session ahead turns to preliminary durable goods orders data as well as appearances from ECB's Vujcic and Fed's Kashkari. The possibility of a government shutdown remains a hang over for market sentiment, with markets looking to gauge the potential economic impacts as well as market ramifications.
  • The prior full government shutdown in 2013 provided an initial drag on GDP, but this subsequent reversal and gains for equities across that period kept any drop for risk sentiment in check.
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