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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MACRO ANALYSIS
- The sectoral balance breakdown within the private sector is more revealing.
- Households – typical net lenders – are saving at the lowest rate since the lead up to the GFC. This is a well-known trend and has seen the hypothetical “excess savings” accumulated in the initial pandemic period be whittled down from a peak worth in the region of 9.5% GDP in late 2021.
- This running down of excess savings has provided a particularly strong tailwind to consumption growth but now looks to have come to an end depending on methodology used – see here.
- Looking ahead, a return to households saving at a more typical pace would offer a modest headwind to personal consumption growth.
- However, businesses tell a conflicting story, with net lending behavior currently at levels more closely associated with recessions but we’d argue is on balance more bullish than that sounds.
- On the one hand and in the nearer term, the recent increase in net lending could dampen investment growth (corporates aren’t running the neutral to modest net borrowing position that historically has helped as an investment tailwind), but on the flipside it has helped firm up corporate balance sheets to respond to any future shocks.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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