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BLOCK, 10Y Buy


Trend Conditions Remain Bullish


Reverse Repo Operation


US Outperformance Keeps Sending EURUSD Lower


New Bond Highs

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  • USD/ZAR trades +0.35% higher this morning, broadly tracking buying pressure on the BBDXY in early trading as mixed sentiment filters through from APAC.
  • The cross ended yesterday's session -0.36% lower, with price action finding support at the 200dma at 14.60 to form a third successive long candle wick to the downside as buyers stepped in at dynamic support from the moving averages.
  • Yesterday's SARB has been classified as cautiously dovish following minor adjustments to 2021 CPI at 4.3% vs 4.2% prior while 2023 & 2024 forecasts remain the same at 4.2% & 4.5% - reflecting broadly balanced medium-term pricing vectors.
  • As we expected, the decision was unanimous, but Kganyago guided cautiously towards short-term risks to food, fuel wage and producer inflation being to the upside.
  • The focus on medium-term disinflationary factors over short-term transitory pressures keeps out base case for unchanged rates out to 1Q22 intact, but will be watching for near-term risks to forecast revisions in October/November.
  • The cross is currently caught between the 200dma (14.56) and 61.8% Fib (14.88) looking for clearer directional triggers.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.6978, Sup2: 14.6072, Res1: 14.8632, Res2: 14.9065