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CANADA: CAD Mid-Pack Ahead Of Retail Sales

CANADA
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  • USDCAD at 1.4385 holds a pullback off post-FOMC highs of 1.4467 but it’s still climbed more than 150 pips (1.1%) over the week.
  • Resistance is seen at that 1.4467 whilst support is seen at 1.4301 (Dec 18 low) although any declines would be considered corrective.
  • Today sees heavy option expiry for the NY cut, all biased lower: 1.4300 ($988mn), 1.4200 ($2.57bn), 1.4100 ($1.94bn), 1.4095 ($1.09bn).
  • Today’s data is concentrated around 0830ET, with Canadian retail sales for final Oct/advance Nov and flash wholesale sales for Nov plus the US monthly PCE report.
  • Retail sales are seen rising 0.7% M/M in October, per its advance release, after 0.4% in Sept. Volumes should be healthy whilst core (ex auto/gas) sales will also be watched after a very strong 1.4% M/M in Sept. RBC: “With plenty of room for demand to rise and for households to reduce their rate of savings, look for a further modest rise in sales in the advance estimate of November as well”.
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  • USDCAD at 1.4385 holds a pullback off post-FOMC highs of 1.4467 but it’s still climbed more than 150 pips (1.1%) over the week.
  • Resistance is seen at that 1.4467 whilst support is seen at 1.4301 (Dec 18 low) although any declines would be considered corrective.
  • Today sees heavy option expiry for the NY cut, all biased lower: 1.4300 ($988mn), 1.4200 ($2.57bn), 1.4100 ($1.94bn), 1.4095 ($1.09bn).
  • Today’s data is concentrated around 0830ET, with Canadian retail sales for final Oct/advance Nov and flash wholesale sales for Nov plus the US monthly PCE report.
  • Retail sales are seen rising 0.7% M/M in October, per its advance release, after 0.4% in Sept. Volumes should be healthy whilst core (ex auto/gas) sales will also be watched after a very strong 1.4% M/M in Sept. RBC: “With plenty of room for demand to rise and for households to reduce their rate of savings, look for a further modest rise in sales in the advance estimate of November as well”.