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Can The Equity Momentum Persist If DM Tapers?

US
  • In the past year, the significant increase in global liquidity has been one of the main drivers of the spectacular recovery in global equities, and especially the US growth stocks.
  • The chart below shows how the mega-cap growth stocks (represented by the FANG+ index) have been strongly co-moving with global liquidity, which we compute as the total assets of the G4 central banks (Fed, ECB, BoJ, PBoC), in the past 5 years.
  • Hence, with the major central banks preparing for a tapering (lower QE pace + rising rates) as the economies reopen in the coming months, market participants have been questioning concerned about the equity reaction.
  • Momentum on FANGs stocks has eased in the past 5 months as the annual growth pace of central banks has decreased significantly.
  • Can the momentum in global equity persist if DM central banks start tapering / raising rates?

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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