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Can-US 2YY Differential Most Negative Since March Ahead Of CAD CPI

CANADA
  • GoCs modestly build on yesterday’s large outperformance of Treasuries, trading 2.5-3.5bp richer across the curve (vs 1.5-2.5bp for Tsys).
  • Yesterday’s move was concentrated in the front end, with the CAN-US yield differential widening 8bps to -50bps. Now at -51bps, it’s at the lowest since March.
  • BoC-dated CORRA futures show almost no tightening ahead with the first cut lined up for the June meeting. 3M futures have built to 88bp of cuts on a Z3/Z4 basis, lows for the post US CPI range and having last closed lower in mid-July.
  • CPI lands at 0830ET (https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/58129/CanadaCPIPrevNov2023.pdf), part one of an important day for Canada with the government’s Fall Economic Statement from 1600ET.

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