Carry-over bid in 2021 FF.........>

FED FUNDS FUTURES: Carry-over bid in 2021 FF futures with levels holding well

above par at 100.015 to 100.045 at the moment. Bid extends out to Feb 2022 on

light volume. More an anomaly implying negative forward rates than any

conviction the Fed will break zero level.

- TD advising customers to fade the rally as move NOT "justified by fundamentals

as FOMC members have repeatedly stated that they do not expect to take rates

negative." Markets my be experiencing "a repositioning or short squeeze" much

like what happened in oil futures recently serial markets traded deeply

negative. 

- "Even in a more dire economic scenario, the Fed would likely favor YCC or

forward guidance rather than negative rates (which affect money funds and

banks)" TD said, and expect the "Fed to push back against negative rates in

upcoming remarks." TD looked to sell FFN1 at 100.035 late Thursday is currently

trading 100.050 (+0.020) on light volume.