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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA DATA
CBA household spending intentions for January fell 6.9% m/m after rising 0.3% in December to bring the annual rate to 5.2% from 2.2%. The headline fall looks concerning on the face of it but it is worth noting that it is not seasonally adjusted and January usually sees a sharp drop following Christmas. CBA notes that the seasonally-adjusted index was marginally higher on the month and that higher inflation is boosting this nominal series.
- The January 2023 decline was not as sharp as the Covid-impacted January 2022’s -9.5% m/m and was in line with both January 2019 and 2020. Certainly in this case one month doesn’t make a trend and we will need several more months to determine if households are intending to cut spending sharply or are proving more resilient. Consumer confidence and spending intentions continue to move in opposite directions (see chart).
- Given the seasonal pattern it is unsurprising that the January move was driven by the retail sector. There were also declines in entertainment, household services and transport but travel and motor vehicles rose.
Australia CBA household spending intentions vs Westpac consumer confidence
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/Bloomberg
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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