CBA Says Trade Outlook Uncertain

CBA on trade balance: The outlook for some exports looks uncertain in the short term given the trade tensions between China and Australia. So far coal has been targeted as well as many of Australia's agricultural export. To the extent that exporters can divert goods to other markets the macroeconomic impacts will be limited. A very strong iron ore price will add to the value of iron ore exports in the coming months.

• The other uncertainty lies around the timing of border reopenings and when tourism and education exports can fully resume. Given the challenges in vaccinating a significant proportion of the population, international travel is unlikely to be an option for some time yet.

CBA on housing data: Federal government's HomeBuilder grant system will continue to support new housing builds and renovation activity over 2021 and into 2022. The outlook for apartments is less rosy with border closures reducing the demand for student accommodation.

The outlook for the non‑residential sector is uncertain with border closures, a collapse in population growth and international tourist numbers and the shift towards working from home all factors at play.